Market Outlook: Geopolitical Tensions vs. Technical Resilience
It’s time for a correction after the wild run in S&P500. It has reached the upper trendline, volume is decreasing, and the 5h wave seems to be finished. The green Zone is important. I would expect a pullback into that zone. The reaction in that zone is important for the further progress. I am decreasing my positions and the rise by getting rid of margin positions.

The Geopolitical Factor
The current Iran–United States confrontation amounts to a regional war with global consequences. Frequent strikes and counterstrikes, combined with Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have disrupted global energy supplies and driven up oil prices, while both sides talk about a negotiated end but keep conducting military operations. Behind the headlines, the conflict is a struggle over power, nuclear ambitions, and regional influence, and its outcome could reshape security and trade relationships across the Middle East and beyond

Technical Levels to Watch
As long as the following key support levels hold, the markets remain in a short-term bearish setup. In that case we have hedging opportunities at these levels.
• US100 (Nasdaq): ~25600
• US500 (S&P 500): 6,900
These levels currently represent the maximum short-term correction potential in my view.
A break above would create a more bullish trend.

The Road Ahead
Long-term, my upside target for the S&P 500 is 7,500. Once this level is reached, I expect the market to transition into a prolonged and significant correction phase. Until then, the trend remains structurally intact if 6100 doesn’t break.
This is for informational purposes only. Full disclaimer here.